With major policy shifts expected in Canada’s immigration system throughout 2026 — from new permanent residence pathways to potential changes in work-permit eligibility — CIC News turned to artificial intelligence to see what it might predict for the year ahead. Keep in mind that these are speculative insights based on AI responses, not official forecasts, and the actual outcomes will depend on government policy decisions and procedural changes.
🧠 How the AI Predictions Were Generated
For this article, CIC News used ChatGPT-5.2 in Thinking Mode, asking 14 targeted questions about Canadian immigration topics and instructing the AI to include as much detail as possible — including specific numbers and timelines where applicable. AI results are informative but not always accurate, so verify with official government sources or qualified immigration professionals before making major decisions.
📊 Key AI Predictions for 2026 Immigration
🔽 1. Lower CRS Cut-Offs for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Draws
According to the AI, Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cut-off scores for Express Entry Canadian Experience Class draws may decrease in 2026 compared to 2025 — partly because job-offer points were removed and IRCC continues to prioritize in-Canada candidates. The bot projected a range between roughly 535 (peak) and 495 (lowest) at different times during the year.
Note: These estimates are speculative — factors like pool size, candidate movement, and new policy changes still have significant influence on actual cut-off scores.
🏙 2. Greater Preference for In-Canada Applicants
The AI suggested that Canada might lean even harder on prioritizing immigration candidates already in the country, effectively creating a “de facto temporary-to-PR system” through heavy CEC emphasis and possibly new categories akin to last year’s Physicians category.
IRCC has signaled a continued emphasis on converting temporary residents already working in Canada into permanent residents, including accelerated transition targets under recent policy planning.
📍 3. More Targeted Provincial Immigration
The AI predicted increased provincial targeting based on in-province experience, prioritizing occupations such as healthcare, social services, and construction in provincial nominee streams, while strengthening requirements for local work experience.
Many provinces have already shown a tendency toward targeted occupation draws, driven by labour shortages and economic priorities heading into 2026.
🔄 4. Express Entry Category Changes
The AI forecast potential pauses in some Express Entry categories (like STEM) and the possible introduction of new ones (e.g., construction-related occupations or critical infrastructure roles).
However, Canada’s immigration department has not publicly confirmed the addition or removal of these specific categories — and historically category changes have depended on labour needs and policy planning.
🧑💼 5. Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) May Tighten
AI also speculated that the Temporary Foreign Worker Program could impose stricter eligibility requirements this year — including expanded low-wage LMIA freezes, higher wage thresholds, and enhanced compliance, especially for repeat employers.
Official data in early 2026 does not show new regions being added to the low-wage LMIA freeze list — indicating that predicted restrictions may not fully materialize as AI suggested.
🩺 6. Physicians Category Draws Expected Early 2026
The AI forecasted that the Physicians with Canadian Work Experience Express Entry category would start issuing invitations around February–March 2026.
This aligns with IRCC announcements that such rounds would begin early in the year, although exact months have not been officially confirmed.
🚀 7. New Entrepreneur/Startup Immigration Pathways
AI predicted that Canada would launch a smaller, stricter entrepreneur immigration pilot in mid-2026 with limited intake numbers, possibly focusing on accountability criteria and faster PR decisions for founders already operating in Canada.
Canada has confirmed plans for new business-immigration pilots following the closure of the Start-Up Visa program at the end of 2025, but details and timelines remain subject to official release.
📌 Takeaways: AI Predictions Are Interesting — Not Official
AI models like ChatGPT can highlight possibilities by analyzing patterns, targets, and publicly available data — but they’re not official sources. Predictions (like CRS ranges or draw timing) are speculative and may vary significantly from real policy actions by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
If you’re planning your immigration strategy in 2026, always verify critical details with IRCC official releases, provincial government updates, or qualified immigration lawyers and authorised representatives.
